This is a series of five videos (in Finnish), outlining what I currently consider the most important facets of Finnish pandemic preparedness. Also published at mattiheino.com
Videoissa alla selitän asiat, jotka näen tärkeimpinä ja tieteellistä tarkastelua parhaiten kestävinä näkökulmina suomalaiseen pandemiavasteeseen. Näkemykset eivät ole Behaviour Change & Well-being -tutkimusryhmän, Valtioneuvoston kanslian käyttäytymistieteellisen neuvonantoryhmän, tai Citizen Shield -pandemiavalmiushankkeen virallisia kantoja.
Osa 0: Johdatus käyttäytymiseen, järjestelmiin ja keskinäisriippuvaisuuteen.
Osa 1: Leveysrajoitteisista hännistä.
Osa 2: Noususta, tuhosta ja oikea-aikaisuudesta.
Osa 3: Ikävien yllätysten minimoinnista.
Osa 4: Resilienssistä ja yhteenveto.
Videoissa mainittu tilannekuvaa ylläpitävä verkkosivu:
Relevantteja blogipostauksia:
- Itseohjautuvat kansalaiset, kriisinkestävä yhteiskunta
- Suomen tie ulos kriisistä
- Suomenkielisiä työkaluja COVID-19 taisteluun; yksilöille, yrityksille ja päätöksentekijöille
- How uncertainty makes decisions easier, not harder
- Mindfulness for burning cities and viral pandemics
Kanadan tilanteesta:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/latest-travel-health-advice.html
https://travel.gc.ca/travel-covid
Mainittuja/relevantteja julkaisuja:
0. Cirillo, P. & Taleb, N. N. Tail risk of contagious diseases. Nature Physics 16, 606–613 (2020).
1.Rauch, E. M. & Bar-Yam, Y. Long-range interactions and evolutionary stability in a predator-prey system. Phys. Rev. E 73, 020903 (2006).
2.Kollepara, P. K., Siegenfeld, A. F., Taleb, N. N. & Bar-Yam, Y. Unmasking the mask studies: why the effectiveness of surgical masks in preventing respiratory infections has been underestimated. arXiv:2102.04882 [q-bio] (2021).
3.Siegenfeld, A. F. & Bar-Yam, Y. The impact of travel and timing in eliminating COVID-19. Communications Physics 3, 1–8 (2020).
4.Taleb, N. N., Bar-Yam, Y. & Cirillo, P. On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables. International Journal of Forecasting (2020) doi:10/ghgvdx.
5.Siegenfeld, A. F., Taleb, N. N. & Bar-Yam, Y. Opinion: What models can and cannot tell us about COVID-19. PNAS (2020) doi:10.1073/pnas.2011542117.
6.Wong, V., Cooney, D. & Bar-Yam, Y. Beyond Contact Tracing: Community-Based Early Detection for Ebola Response. PLoS Currents (2016) doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.322427f4c3cc2b9c1a5b3395e7d20894.
7.Shen, C., Taleb, N. N. & Bar-Yam, Y. Review of Ferguson et al ‘Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions…’ (2020).
Kirjallisuutta eliminaatio-/segmentaatiostrategiasta:
1.Geoghegan, J. L., Moreland, N. J., Le Gros, G. & Ussher, J. E. New Zealand’s science-led response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Nat Immunol 22, 262–263 (2021).
2.The Lancet Infectious Diseases. The COVID-19 exit strategy—why we need to aim low. The Lancet Infectious Diseases S1473309921000803 (2021) doi:10/gh4kvk.
3.Morell, M., Estrada, K., Dominguez, E., Perez, A. & Montesino, D. The Efficacy of Long-Term Elimination Efforts: A Case Study on New Zealand’s SARS. 20.
4.Baker, M. G., Kvalsvig, A. & Verrall, A. J. New Zealand’s COVID‐19 elimination strategy. Medical Journal of Australia 213, 198 (2020).
5.Summers, D. J. et al. Potential lessons from the Taiwan and New Zealand health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific 4, 100044 (2020).
6.Heywood, A. E. & Macintyre, C. R. Elimination of COVID-19: what would it look like and is it possible? The Lancet Infectious Diseases 20, 1005–1007 (2020).
7.Wilson, N., Boyd, M., Kvalsvig, A., Chambers, T. & Baker, M. Public Health Aspects of the Covid-19 Response and Opportunities for the Post-Pandemic Era. pq 16, (2020).
8.Elimination of covid-19. A practical roadmap by segmentation. m4907 (2021).
9.Priesemann, V. et al. An action plan for pan-European defence against new SARS-CoV-2 variants. The Lancet S0140673621001501 (2021) doi:10/ghtzqn.
10.Sachs, J. D. et al. Lancet COVID-19 Commission Statement on the occasion of the 75th session of the UN General Assembly. The Lancet 396, 1102–1124 (2020).
11.Lee, A., Thornley, S., Morris, A. J. & Sundborn, G. Should countries aim for elimination in the covid-19 pandemic? BMJ 370, m3410 (2020).
12.Blakely, T. et al. The probability of the 6‐week lockdown in Victoria (commencing 9 July 2020) achieving elimination of community transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2. Medical Journal of Australia 213, 349 (2020).
13.Priesemann, V. et al. Calling for pan-European commitment for rapid and sustained reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infections. The Lancet 397, 92–93 (2021).
14.Baker, M. G., Wilson, N. & Blakely, T. Elimination could be the optimal response strategy for covid-19 and other emerging pandemic diseases. BMJ 371, m4907 (2020).